๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ
Predicted champion ยท independent model
Spain
nearest challenger ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina
18.6%
model ยท market 16.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท
14.0%
Argentina
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท
10.3%
Brazil
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
9.2%
England
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท
8.8%
France
Opening match ยท all times ET
Tournament underway

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico v South Africa ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ยท Jun 11 ยท 3:00 PM ET ยท Estadio Azteca

Based on 50,000 Monte-Carlo simulations of an independent engine โ€” team strength from 30,712 internationals + Elo, never the betting market. Updated 2026-06-04. How the model works โ–พ
  • Team strength is fit to 30,712 real internationals (recency-weighted), blended ~20% toward World Football Elo โ€” the market is never an input.
  • Each match: a bivariate-Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction โ†’ W/D/L, expected goals, and a modal scoreline.
  • The tournament runs 50,000 times with the official FIFA 2026 group tiebreakers (head-to-head first) and the 8-best-thirds rule.
  • Market numbers appear only as a labelled reference column. No wagering advice.
Most likely finalists
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ ESP ยท ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท ARG
Model's dark horse
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina +5.7
Field
48 teams ยท 104 games
Your scenario
0 picks ยท 0 results
Centerpiece

Title odds โ€” model vs market

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธSpain+2.3
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ทArgentina+5.7
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ทBrazil+1.9
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟEnglandโˆ’1.9
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทFranceโˆ’7.5
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡นPortugalโˆ’2.0
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ดColombia+2.9
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ชGermanyโˆ’1.9
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑNetherlandsโˆ’0.5
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ชBelgium+0.8
model market (reference only)

Honest disagreements

The engine is deliberately independent of the market, so its divergences are kept, not damped:

๐Ÿ“ˆ Model higher โ€” Argentina, Colombia, Spain.

๐Ÿ“‰ Model lower โ€” France, Portugal, England.

Market shown for reference only. No wagering advice.

Advancement odds โ€” all 48 teams

updatingโ€ฆ
48 teams ยท tap a header to sort
TeamWin grpR16QFSFFinalChampion โ–พMarket
H๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธSpain75745442291916.3
J๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ทArgentina7365513623148.2
C๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ทBrazil6470493218108.4
L๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟEngland6669472917911.2
I๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทFrance5869452916916.2
K๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡นPortugal506540231378.5
K๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ดColombia415934191051.8
E๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ชGermany56643319945.7
F๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑNetherlands51483218844.3
G๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ชBelgium61684017832.4
C๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆMorocco27502914631.4
H๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พUruguay22422412521.1
B๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญSwitzerland59632912521.1
E๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จEcuador32512311420.8
L๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ทCroatia29472210420.9
I๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ดNorway2343219412.3
F๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ตJapan2832178311.7
I๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณSenegal1736166210.6
A๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝMexico5152217211.1
J๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡นAustria1527125210.5
D๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ทTรผrkiye3240155201.0
D๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พParaguay2332113100.2
D๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUnited States2533113101.1
B๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆCanada3145154100.4
D๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บAustralia2130103100.1
G๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทIran2036123100.1
J๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟAlgeria102183100.1
C๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟScotland92593100.2
A๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ทSouth Korea2131103100.1
E๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎIvory Coast122893100.3
G๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌEgypt1732103100.2
A๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟCzechia2132103100.1
F๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ชSweden131772100.4
F๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณTunisia81241000.1
K๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉDR Congo41131000.1
B๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆBosnia and Herzegovina81841000.2
K๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟUzbekistan41031000.1
A๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆSouth Africa71230000.1
I๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถIraq2410000.1
J๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ดJordan2410000.1
L๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆPanama2510000.1
L๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญGhana3610000.1
H๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆSaudi Arabia1610000.1
C๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡นHaiti0100000.1
B๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆQatar2510000.1
H๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ปCape Verde1610000.1
G๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟNew Zealand2400000.1
E๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ผCuraรงao0100000.1